QUARTERBACK:
This is the
big question mark this year. Most of the NFL sees this as starter Joey
Harrington's year to shape up or ship out. Most Lions fans have long since
decided on "ship out", and you can expect raucous boos to follow Harrington
around unless/until the Lions start winning. I think Harrington does have what
it takes to be a very good starter in the NFL, but he's *too* smart, too
cerebral. He over thinks. It causes him to be slow and indecisive on his reads,
and he loses confidence and gets frustrated quickly. The ignorant boo-bird fans
are not doing anything to help this. Additionally, the rest of the team has no
confidence in him. Everyone in the organization knows this is the year, this is
the start, this is when the Lions break out of their funk and win games.
However, most of the team sees Joey as the icon of the "horrible" era, and view
him as part of the losing days they need to put behind them, not the winning
days ahead. Fortunately for him and the team, he will not be asked to win games
anymore. The bread and butter of this team will be the running game, and he
should have plenty of sure handed talent around him to elevate his play. They
don't need Joey to be a hero, just to not be a goat. If he is as improved this
year over last year as he was last year over the year before, he will be more
than good enough to get this team to the playoffs.
The word out of camp is that Harrington looks much sharper in practice, but
that's been the word out of camp every year. In the open practice, Harrington
looked great in the red zone drills, but iffy in WR/DB drills and the scrimmage.
Honestly, it was hard to tell if it was just him, or the wide receivers weren't
getting open, or the defensive backs were just playing that well. One very
exciting thing was Harrington's newfound use of his legs. In the past,
Harrington would decide no one was open, and then force it to his check down.
Now, when no one is open, he leaves the pocket to buy time, and if the space is
there, he tucks and runs. If he can effectively add this to his game, it could
be huge for the Lions offense.
Now, there is a contingent of fans who are rooting for backup Jeff Garcia to
take over the starter's job, but word out of camp is that his arm strength is
not there. From my observations at the open practice, Garcia still gets good zip
on the short routes, but his deep balls are high floaters that take forever to
get there--in other words, easy pickings for defensive backs. If Harrington goes
down, Garcia will be an adequate fill-in. A funny irony is that Garcia looked
far more like a pocket passer than Joey on that day. Garcia makes his decisions
much more quickly and delivers the ball--for better or for worse. Harrington
refuses to make the big mistake, but Garcia refuses to settle for the dump-off
or the scramble. Maybe he's just that intent on proving he still has it?
Third-stringer Dan Orlovsky, out of UConn, looked okay in what little practice
time he got. He's a good-sized pocket passer, definitely a project. He could be
a Kelly Holcomb-type, a career backup, who gets a few years in the sun as a
sometime-starter.
Fantasy Value: Harrington has tremendous upside but is a very low
chance to hit it. Garcia poses little real threat to Harrington's starter job,
and if he does end up the starter (for whatever reason) he won't put up numbers.
Orlovsky will not see the field this year, and unless he really wows them in
practice this year, probably won't get a crack at starting anytime soon. The
only QB with any fantasy value is Harrington, and that's a swing for the fences.
If your starters' bye week is an easy match up, and you're looking for a
risk/reward man in that spot, Harrington could certainly be that man.
RUNNING BACKS: Second-year starter Kevin Jones is going to run for at
least 1700 yards and 10 touchdowns. He's a monster, with speed, power, vision,
and moves. He's got a great offensive line and full back in front of him, and he
never, ever, ever gives up on a play. Backing him up is third-year guy Artose
Pinner, a straight-ahead guy with power and a little bit of wiggle as well.
Pinner is young and the Lions like him, but Jones is 100% The Man in this
offense, and barring injury he's what will make the whole thing go this year.
Behind Pinner is Jamel White, a multidimensional back who can give the offense a
pass catcher out of the backfield if (God forbid) Jones goes down. Eternal rock
of granite Cory Schlesinger will again blast open holes for Jones, but he is
aging and the Lions are looking for his replacement. Paul Smith has been off and
on the roster for a few of years, but he's more of a runner and receiver than a
replacement for Sledge. Rookie Will Matthews, however, is a punishing blocker
with upside, and he and Smith will battle for a roster spot.
Fantasy Value: Kevin Jones will be a Top 5 stud. If you have him, then
Pinner is the primary backup. I don't see any of the others making any kind of
impact.
WIDE RECEIVERS: This is the position everyone is going gaa-gaa over, and
with good reason. Charles Rogers and Roy Williams will be the top two wide outs,
and will make an explosive pair. Chuck is the big question mark, as his
collarbone has fractured twice in the past two years. The first time, they let
it heal naturally. This time, they riveted and plated the snot out of it, and
are as confident as they can be that he is 100% and will last the season. He's
added about ten pounds of muscle, and looks as fast and explosive as ever. He
and Dre Bly have had a great time working against each other. Roy Williams looks
fully recovered from the ankle injury, and caught a couple of great passes
during the open practice. Those two will be an incredible combo, very fast, with
Chuck the faster, and very strong, with Roy the stronger. Anyone who saw the
Lions-Eagles game last year will know just what Roy is capable of. There have
been conflicting reports, but from what I understand, the Lions will mainly use
a two-WR set, with Pollard and Schlesinger in. Rogers and Williams will play any
of the four WR positions, flip-flopping and rotating to keep fresh and create
mismatches. Rookie Mike Williams (already known as BMW--Big Mike Williams--to
many Lions fans) is also going to learn all four receiver positions, and be
slowly rotated into the offense. Veteran Kevin Johnson is probably the most
underrated FA acquisition the Lions made this year, he has been both a mentor
and a friend to all the young wide outs, and will create mismatches. He, too,
will be used from any of the four WR spots. Return specialist Eddie Drummond
returns as the sixth WR who will almost certainly never catch a ball in the
regular season, leaving one roster spot left for either David Kircus or Scottie
Vines. "Circus" Kircus is a local boy and a fan favorite, but Vines has been
consistently outplaying him in practice, and looked better when both were on the
field in the regular season last year. The fact that both Kircus and Vines were
on the field at the same time last year should give you an idea of A) how
terrible the Lions' wide outs have been, and how much better they will be this
year, even if the injury bug bites again.
Fantasy Value: Rogers and Roy Williams will be the primary targets,
catch most of the balls, and get most of the touchdowns as well. Mike Williams
and Marcus Pollard will undoubtedly get red zone looks, but on the whole expect
the top two guys to see most of the fantasy love. Basically, look for 50-70
receptions, 1000-1300 yards, and 7-10 touchdowns from both of the top two, and
other than that it's a total crapshoot. There will be tremendous value here in
all fantasy leagues, but keeper leagues most of all. If you're asking me "which
one will do the best" my answer is "Chuck or Roy", and anyone who tells you any
different is talking out of their butt. Look for all the Lions wide receivers to
slide, and as long as you don't expect top ten production from any of them, you
won't be disappointed. I'm not saying that that's not a possibility, but frankly
with these quarterbacks, so many targets, and the run-first mentality, I just
don't see that happening.
TIGHT ENDS: Free agent acquisition Marcus Pollard is the starter, and
though he may be past his prime, he's much better than Joey has ever had to
throw to before. Look for big contributions on third downs and in the red zone,
and for the consistent pair of hands to boost Joey's confidence. Casey
Fitszimmons returns, but he hasn't flashed much more of that promise he showed
his rookie year. I'm not sure he'll ever be a regular contributor, but he will
be the #2 TE. The race for #3 TE will come down to veteran Leonard Stephens or
rookie (out of MSU) Jason Randall. Stephens provides seasoned hands, but Randall
is a 280-pounder who can push the pile at the line and ramble for extra yards.
Randall's had a great camp, so I expect they'll take him if they do carry a
third TE.
Fantasy Value: Pollard is one of the few tight ends you can count on
for production every year, but the rise of the three-headed monster in Indy
froze him out of some of the love. This year, expect Pollard to produce a little
more than the past couple seasons--but he's past the stage of his career where
he's going to put up WR-like numbers. None of the others should be on your
fantasy team unless you are related to them.
OFFENSIVE LINE: Probably the most improved unit. Steady LT Jeff Backus
returns, for what may be his last season as a Lion. Smart and tough, he does
very well in the run game and pass protection, but is not a shutdown 'bookend'
tackle, and isn't athletic enough to stop elite edge rushers. On the whole he's
solid, but unspectacular. New left guard Rick Demulling is an excellent younger
veteran with experience, athleticism, and technique. He's fit very well into the
Lions' unit, and together with the rejuvenated (e.g., 40 pounds lighter) Damien
Woody, form one of the best guard combos in the game. Returning C Dominic Raiola
is still more potential than reality at this point, but he's Joey Harrington's
closest friend on the team, and is good in pass protection. He lacks the
strength to get much push in the run game, though. Last year's sixth-rounder,
Kelly Butler has the inside track on the right tackle job vacated by Stockar
McDonald's. Butler is big and strong and full of potential, but the Lions are
worried that he'll have trouble once the action is live--he's never taken a
regular season snap. If Butler can't handle it, they'll probably sign FA Scott
Gragg (ex-SF) to take over the starting spot. The 'swing' T/G backup is veteran
Kyle Kosier (ex-SF as well), and big young Victor Rogers will be the backup at
RT. There will be a battle for the backup guard spot, but I think young Tyrone
Hopson will beat out crusty vet David Loverne.
Fantasy Value: Obviously you don't draft O-lines, but this unit
is drastically improved by addition (DeMulling) and subtraction (about 400
pounds' worth of Stocker McDougal and Damien Woody's beer gut). Woody says he
was stealing from the team by being so out-of-shape last year, and has dedicated
himself to being "the best guard in football". DeMulling looks great and
completes the offensive line. On the whole, I think this is a great group that's
better than it has been since '91. Together with Schlesinger they should be
great in the run game, especially pulling to either side. The pass game should
be even better, especially on the interior. If this unit can come together--and
if Raiola steps it up--it will be one of the better lines in the game.
OFFENSIVE OVERVIEW: The Lions offense has as much youth, speed, and
talent at the skill positions as any team in the league, if not more. Kevin
Jones is a lock to be a top five back, and once defenses respect that run game,
the deep passing game should (finally) open up. If the WRs can finally stay
healthy, and give Joey reliable open targets, the Lions offense is limited only
by Joey's execution and the imagination. If Joey is as good this year as he was
last year, this is an offense that will allow the Lions get to the playoffs. If
he's improved as much over last year as he over the year before, this offense
should carry the Lions to the NFC North title.
DEFENSIVE LINE: This is the strongest unit of the team. Leading the
charge is monster tackle Shaun Rogers, who was signed to a big fat contract
extension during the season last year. He's a big, strong, athletic monster who
is nearly unblockable. He can run-stop and rush the passer as well as just about
anybody. Next to him has been Dan 'Big Daddy' Wilkinson, who has been a great
veteran compliment to the youthful star--but Wilkinson is finally fading, and
the Lions are looking towards the youth movement. Young veteran Marcus Bell was
one of the lowest profile, best-value free agents available this year. The "old
Lions" would have let this guy get away from them, but instead they re-signed
him, and that could be the difference between being thin at tackle and being
stacked there. Bell is big, and VERY strong, and he excels in run support. He
and Rogers as a duo are pretty fearsome, and you will see that combination on
run downs. "Super Agent" featured rookie Shaun Cody will see time at tackle on
passing downs, and they're hoping that he and Rogers together will be able to
put crazy pressure on the QB up the middle. Cody might theoretically see time at
end, too, but I don't think so. They view him as a pass-rushing tackle, rather
than a run-stopping end. I didn't get to see much of him at the open practice,
and the offensive and defensive lines were only running at about 80% of 'full
speed' anyway, so it was really hard to tell how effective he might be. At the
right end spot, Michigan alum James Hall comes off an eleven-sack season. He's
not blazing fast, but he's got just enough speed, strength, smarts, and
technique to get at the QB. It doesn't hurt to have Rogers commanding
double-teams on every play, either. At the left end spot, Cory Redding takes
over the starter's spot. Redding and Rogers started at Texas together as the
tackles, but the Lions converted him Redding to left end. Not surprisingly, he's
strong and great in run support, and he's getting better at rushing the passer.
He'll never have elite burst, though, and Kalimba Edwards will probably spell
him on obvious passing downs. Edwards, best known to Lions fans as "not Clinton
Portis", had a monster rookie year three seasons ago where he racked up 9 sacks
in 4 starts, including a game where hunted down Mike Vick like a dog. Since then
it's been a string of groin injuries, and he may never return to the form he
flashed his rookie season. Too bad. Behind them, Jared DeVries will back up both
ends. He's a very hardworking role-player, who certainly won't ever start, but
he's very valuable in his role. Finally, the rookie Bill Swancutt. He has a
hellacious motor, but he's very undersized and will have to make a big impact on
special teams in order to make the roster.
LINEBACKERS: The Lions have a plethora of young, athletic linebackers, to
the point that they aren't sure what to do with them all. Champ Bailey's little
brother Boss Bailey returns to the strong side. Tall, amazingly fast, and
incredibly athletic, Boss reminds me of a slightly smaller, slightly faster
Derrick Brooks. A knee injury sidelined him for all of last year, and they've
been holding him out of one practice a day during two a days just to be safe. He
is supposed to be 100%, and is running and hitting at full speed; they're just
holding him back from full practices. The man who manned the strong side for all
16 games last year, Teddy Lehman, will have an interesting role this year.
They'd love to have him take the starting job away from stalwart run-stopper
Earl Holmes, but Holmes is still too good to just bench. Fast, athletic James
Davis has been very effective on the weak side, so he will probably start there.
Even-faster speedster Alex Lewis will join Bailey to form the nickel 'backer
pair. Lehman will probably see a starter's worth of snaps at all three LB
positions, but the MLB job is there for the taking if he earns it. He's tough,
smart, and fast, he just needs to add some bulk and he'll be a machine.
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Probably the biggest addition to this years' team is SS
Kenoy Kennedy. He's a fast player who loves to hit. He's certainly not a
complete player, but the swagger and the pop he brings are exactly what this
defense needed. The safeties have been an absolute joke for the past few years,
and many a first down was gained by opponent running backs bowling over the
aging veteran tackling dummies like the backup SS, Bracy Walker. At the free
safety spot, Torry Holt's little brother Terrence Holt steps into the starter's
role. Terrence hasn't gotten much playing time at this point, but he's made the
most of what little time he's had, racking up three picks in his rookie year
(2003). He's instinctive, agile, likes to hit and has great awareness, but lacks
the deep pure speed that would make him a monster. Millen and the fans love him
anyway and everyone has high hopes that Holt can make a big impact this year.
Backing him up will be R.W. McQuarters, who has "GAME BREAKER" tattooed across
his shoulder blades. Mr. McQuarters must be a master of sarcastic humor. At the
corners, Pro Bowler Dre Bly locks down one side, and the Lions hope last year's
FA acquisition Fernando Bryant can get healthy and live up to his billing on the
other side. From there, Andre Goodman will battle McQuarters for the nickel back
role, and blazing fast rookie Stanley Wilson will take the last remaining roster
spot. Wilson has shown a lot in camp, and apparently Millen is giddy over his
potential. He could be the nickel back by year's end if he continues to practice
well. If Terry Holt is as good as the fans think he is, and Bryant can regain
the form he showed for years in Jacksonville, the secondary could be one of the
best in the game. If not . . . well, it still has to be better than last years'
unit.
DEFENSIVE OVERVIEW: The Lions defense is also full of youth and speed,
but there are more question marks than on offense. The Lions have about eleven
players they'd like to be regular contributors in the front seven, and that
means lots of rotation, lots of different looks, and fresher legs in the fourth
quarter. However, it also means instability--not having clear-cut starters and
roles is going to be weird for the players and the fans. I'm hoping guys like
Lehman step up during training camp. The defense was not as bad as the stats
made it look last year; the offense regularly hung the defense out to dry,
especially in the fourth quarter. If Kennedy can make a big impact and Bryant
can play up to his contract, the Lions will probably have the best defense in
the division.
Overall, the Lions are SO much deeper than they've been since their only playoff
win (1991). The only real question marks are at QB, DB, and Chuck Rogers'
shoulder. Every other position is either rock-solid across the board, or there
is enough youth, depth, and talent to fill any holes. IMO they are neck-and-neck
with the Vikings in terms of on-paper talent, and something will have to go
seriously wrong for them not to make a run at the division title. In fact, if
they don't make the playoffs, Mariucci will almost certainly be on the hot seat.
